WELCOME TO REFINED INSIGHTS.
Hello, this is Refined Insights. At first, this newsletter was going to be about the emerging trends that would probably define our future. I now realize two things: first off, I do not have the answers where that is concerned. Second, no one else does either. It appears that the only use of a plan is to teach us randomness.
Our world is replete with noise and hype. Noise has always existed. Hype, on the other hand, is a recent feature. We are inundated with forecasts of gloom, forecasts of utopias, revolutions that are always a decade away, mad men, madder women, breathless announcements of progress, equally breathless denouncements immediately after. People suspect they have been blindfolded, that some important truth has been concealed from them. They haven’t. It’s just all the swans are black now.
So, instead, this newsletter will have to be something else: an outsider trying to understand the world a little differently. Will it sometimes fall for the hype? Of course. To maintain otherwise would be dishonest. This is my love letter to the world. Like all love letters, it will sometimes be uneven. Like all love letters, that is the point.
We seem to be moving from a world in which risks recur regularly with little impact to a world in which they occur infrequently with massive impact. This is cause for caution. Replace risk with opportunity and the statement holds just as well. This is cause for excitement. Either pessimism or optimism on this newsletter will not come cheap; it will have to be earned. The point of this newsletter is to earn it together.
Bubbles will be popped. Feathers will be ruffled. And yes, mistakes will be made. There will be two to three newsletters each week. Beyond that, our guesses are equally as good. This newsletter will remain free for as long as possible. So, once again, welcome. And if you are reading this before or after subscribing, thank you for the privilege of your time.
